Mobridge, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

027
FXUS63 KABR 190529
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Probability of exceeding 2 inches of rainfall from tonight
  through Tuesday night ranges from 50-85% from the James River
  westward into central/south central SD. Many areas likely
  (70-95% chance) to see at least an inch of rainfall. Severe
  storm threat remains low.

- Below normal (15-25 degrees below normal) temperatures continue
  through Wednesday before a warming trend toward normal (normals
  in the upper 60s to mid 70s) temperatures kicks in for the
  second half of the week, and heading into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Been watching an area of showers and thunderstorms moving
northward across central SD over the past couple hours, but PoPs
have this handled fairly well already. This activity is out ahead
of the main push of moisture further south across WY/NE/KS which
looks to make its way into our region later overnight into Monday
morning. Also reduced sky cover across the eastern CWA for the
next few hours as it`ll take some more time for the mid/high
clouds to overspread the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

A deep upper level trough and inverted surface low pressure system
will be the dominant weather feature over the next 48 to 72 hours.

While light showers have persisted across western South Dakota
today, more widespread precipitation will move into eastern South
Dakota later this evening and overnight. A 500 mb trough should be
located over western SD tonight, with an increasing LLJ of 40 to 50
knots nosing into the CWA. Thermal profiles remain on the cool side,
allowing for very limited severe threat overnight. The majority of
the significant rainfall may occur tonight through Monday. By 0Z
Tuesday, the grand ensemble suggests as much as 1.50 to 2.25 inches
of rainfall should occur across the forecast area. Beyond 0Z
Tuesday, the surface low pressure system pushes east of the region,
leaving behind an cold 500 mb trough of low pressure over the
region. Not fully confident the trough be enough to support showers
into Wednesday, or will the area only see off and on
sprinkles/drizzles. The storm total rainfall amounts exceeding 2.0
inches seems probable, although CIPS analog indicate lower rainfall
totals under 1.5 inches. The additional rainfall could cause some
flooding issues, especially along and west of the Missouri River
valley where soil moisture has shown substantial improvement. Over
the eastern half of the CWA, 100 cm soil moisture is still on the
dry side, or under 30 percent of normal. Later shifts will need
monitor low level temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
for the potential for light snow. While the NAM and other models
suggest light now, the ECMWF meteogram is not overly exciting. The
ECMWF indicates a 10 to 15 percent chance for snow. Still, the
threat snow snow this time of year is pretty rare.

After a brief dry period Wednesday night through Thursday, another
storm system may bring additional showers to the CWA Thursday night
through Friday. The latest ECMWF suggest mostly dry conditions
during this time period, with pcpn possible over the western CWA.
Significant blocking pattern over the Great Lakes region should
limit pcpn from progression across the CWA, as indicated by the
ECMWF. The weather pattern may remain active through the Holiday
weekend, with additional pcpn chances. Overall, the pattern will
favor below average temperatures through the period. Highs on
Tuesday in the 40s and low 50s are 20 to 25 degrees below average
for this time of year. Temperatures may warm to near normal Saturday
and Sunday with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Radar continues to fill in over central South Dakota and upstream,
and this rain with embedded thunder will continue to expand to
cover all terminals with a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS and MVFR VISBY.
Winds will also be on the increase topping out at 35-40kts with
over 50kts at 2kft off the surface. Improvements in CIGS/VISBY is
unlikely until near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...07